Monday Night Football 2018: Patriots vs. Bills odds, line picks, predictions from expert who’s 16-7 on New England games The surging New England Patriots face the struggling Buffalo Bills in a Monday Night Football matchup with a big point spread to consider. The latest Patriots vs. Bills odds have the defending AFC champs favored by 14, up one from the opening line. The Over-Under for total points has dropped a half-point to 44. The forecast calls for wind and cold, so there could be more to this game than meets the eye. Before locking in any Patriots vs. Bills picks, be sure to check out what SportsLine’s Stephen Oh has to say.
A renowned data scientist who co-founded Accuscore, Oh has an uncanny beat on the Patriots. In his last 23 picks involving New England, against the spread or on the money line, Oh has been correct 16 times. Anyone who has followed him is way up. Now, Oh has crunched the numbers for Patriots vs. Bills and produced a strong point-spread pick that he’s revealing only at SportsLine.
Suffice it to say, the Patriots have moved on from a 1-2 start to the season. The last four weeks, New England has won every game and hasn’t scored fewer than 38 points in any of them.
Running back James White has been a huge part of the offense. He has 45 receptions — 19 more than anyone else on the team and No. 2 among all backs in the league. He’s also averaging 4.7 yards on 40 receptions and may be asked to carry more on Monday with starter Sony Michel (knee) likely unavailable.
The Pats do have good news on the injury front, as all-Pro TE Rob Gronkowski (back, ankle) did not play last week in Chicago, but practiced this week and is on track to suit up in Buffalo.
New England’s defense ranks outside the top 20 in passing and rushing yards allowed, but ranks near the middle in points per game (25.6) and has 10 INTs, one off the league lead. No team has thrown more INTs than the Bills (12).
Just because New England is the big favorite to win doesn’t mean it’ll cover. Just ask the Vikings, who were favored by 17 at home in Week 3 when Buffalo demolished them, 27-6.
Things did not go well last week for QB Derek Anderson in his first start in two years, a 37-5 loss at Indianapolis. But he was signed by the Bills just one week prior and fortunes should improve on Monday as he gets used to the playbook and his teammates.
While the passing game remains a work in progress, the run game has at least kept defenses honest. LeSean McCoy and Chris Ivory have combined for 454 yards. McCoy is recovering from a concussion and is questionable, but is expected to suit up.
But if the Bills are to cover the spread Monday, it will be due to a defense that ranks No. 4 in the NFL in yards allowed. Buffalo has 19 sacks — defensive linemen Jerry Hughes, Kyle Williams and Trent Murphy have combined for 11, allowing the LB crew to focus on stopping other aspects. Teams are managing only 210 passing yards per game against Buffalo, fourth-fewest.
We can tell you Oh is leaning under, but his stronger play is against the spread. An alarming stat has caused him to pounce on one side. He’s sharing what it is, and who to back, only at SportsLine.